Adaptive Intelligence in a VUCA world
Sean Bowman, Director, Stagira Consulting Pty Ltd
No doubt you’re probably familiar with the acronym VUCA and how it is used to describe the change that is occurring across the globe right now. In fact to say that the world is increasingly Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous is for the most part an understatement of what most of us are experiencing. And the reason is that the pace of change is increasing – indeed exponentially.
This means that what seemed VUCA six months or a year ago actually feels pretty normal today compared to our VUCA world of here and now. And this pattern will only continue, as will the exponential pace at which it occurs.
What we are experiencing is what one of the world’s leading futurists, Ray Kurzweil, refers to as the Law of Accelerating Returns [The Law of Accelerating Returns; Ray Kurrzweil March 2001] . A more advanced society produces progress at a faster rate than previous societies. Why? Because they are more advanced.
Kurzweil has attempted to articulate this rate of progress in a way that most of us will understand. He does this by referring to the substantial amount of human progress that occurred during the 20th century.
The 20th century was a period of immense change, starting with horse & cart and steam engines and concluding with jet engines, satellites and the internet. Not to mention the complete revolution in social norms and political institutions.
By the year 2000, Kurzweil estimates that the rate of human progress was five times the average rate of progress that occurred during the 20th century. In other words, by the year 2000 it only took 20 years for a 20th century’s worth of change to occur. Kurzweil further estimates that between 2000 and 2014 another 20th century’s worth of change occurred. And right now we are in the middle of another 20th century’s worth of change that is occurring between 2014 and 2021.
If this rate continues, then by around the year 2028, a 20th century’s worth of change will be occurring every year. And by 2030 multiple times a year. And by 2045, multiple times a month.
Just stop and pause on this for a moment.
Within a decade a 20th century’s worth of change will be occurring every year? And beyond 2030, multiple times a year?
Even if this expected rate of change is half wrong (which I doubt it is), the reality is that we are at the tipping point of unimaginable change. When things change exponentially, there is always a tipping point and we are fast approaching, or are at, that point.
Everyone is feeling the impact already. But this is nothing compared to the change that it is to come. And this change is not just about technology. Socially and politically things are more complex and volatile than ever before.
Right now – every notion, every maxim, every concept or norm is up for challenge. Assumptions are being turned on their head. Nothing can be assumed anymore. What you know to be true today may change forever in the blink of an eye.
And then there is immense technological change – advances in Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Virtual Reality and medical science which are shaping the world where it is possible that a 20th Century’s worth of change will happen within a year by 2028.
Clearly our VUCA world will continue to impact pretty much every aspect of our life. Its not all scary – many of these advances are exciting and will enhance out lives significantly.
But of course there is also the much talked about impact on the future of work. Predictions vary about this impact, but it is clear that many roles will disappear. Maybe even whole careers. And new roles and opportunities will arise, requiring new skills and capabilities.
What’s clear in all of this is that the ability to adapt behaviour in this fast changing and complex will be critical. Learning new skills and acquiring new knowledge will be important, but the most important capability is what, at Stagira Consulting we call, Adaptive Intelligence. The ability to adapt our behaviour and make sustained changes on aspects about us that would otherwise hold us back.
Adaptive Intelligence is only just starting to emerge as a critical capability. It builds on rather than replaces other important capabilities such IQ and EI.
During the Industrial Revolution and for most of the 20th Century, intellect or IQ was a defining capability. Then towards the end of the 20th Century it was clear that IQ alone was not enough. Leadership became key in motivating and inspiring people behind a vision or picture of success. This required leaders to lead by example, and meant that leaders had be to highly self aware, which gave rise to the importance of EI or emotional intelligence.
But even the most highly self aware leaders still struggled to actually make sustained changes to their behaviour. Sure, they were open to feedback, and the better leaders made efforts to change their style and behaviour – but how many really were able to sustain the really key changes required?
If you were able to delve into the Talent Reviews of most organisations you would see a similar pattern – that the key development needs of senior people and high potential successors reoccur year after year. In spite of development plans, executive coaching and leadership programs.
After a while development needs are sometimes merely recorded with no meaningful corresponding development action. Basically an acknowledgement that addressing key behavioural change has become is too hard. Worse still is pretending that behavioural change occur which people see through like the Emperor’s New Clothes.
Bob Kegan has written extensively about the fact that most of us have one big thing that we know that if we could change, it would make a big difference to our health, happiness, relationships, career or success. He has written that we are often unconsciously immune to change [Bob Kegan/Lisa Laskow Lahey; Immunity to Change; 2009], and that unless we understand this immunity, and address why it exists, meaningful sustained change will most likely not occur.
At Stagira Consulting we view Kegan’s research as key in addressing one of the reasons why people struggle to sustain meaningful change.
Our research suggests there are 3 key components to building Adaptive Intelligence.
The first is Insight. In order to adapt and change behaviour a person must have high quality insight or self awareness about their own behaviour. We describe this as a compelling perspective that change is required and clarity about the difference that this change will make. We find in many organisations, that there have been multiple efforts and methods to provide insight to leaders.
The second component is Desire – the moment in time when someone really wants to change because the cost of not changing has become too high. Desire for change has to involve strong internal drive and motivation for change – more than “I ought to change” or my boss or partner has told me I need to change.
The third component is Capacity for change – having the requisite level of mental complexity to perceive & adapt our behaviour to the world around us. Even with the strongest Insight and Desire, most people don’t sustain change because they do not tackle the underlying mindset and belief systems that underpins their behaviour. Many people attempt to merely adapt their behaviour through will power, which may result in a spike of personal change, but does not result in sustained change.
Building the critical capability of Adaptive Intelligence requires addressing all three components, with the most important being Capacity for Change. At Stagira Consulting, we have a range of tools and methodologies to build Adaptive Intelligence at the Organisational and Individual level.
